Saturday, July 18, 2009

A Stellar Report From JPM

JPMorgan announced a blockbuster second quarter result. It triumphs seven times over analysts' estimates. The Street was looking for earnings of 7 cents per share but JPM reported 28 cents of profit, after accounting for one-time charges relating to repayment of the TARP program of 27 cents and another 10 cents relating to a special assessment fee paid to the FDIC.

INCOME & REVENUE
  • $2.7 billion in reported earnings before payment for preferred shares and charges related to repayment of TARP money.
  • Earnings due to common shareholder is $1.1 billion.
  • Quarter reported earnings is impacted by a special assessment fee to the FDIC of $419 million (after tax) or $675 million (before tax). Excluding this, the reported earnings would be $3.1 billion.
  • Pretax preprovision income (PPI) is $14.2B on a managed basis or $12.1 on a reported basis - a record for JPM.
  • If annualized, the potential PPI could be ranging from $45 to $50 billion. Assuming credit quality gets much worse, the PPI can potentially covers for up to 7.3% of its loan portfolio of $681 billion, without eating into capital, not forgetting tax benefit for losses incurred would reduce the impact.
CREDIT QUALITY
  • $1.7 billion loss reserve built, thus, loss allowance for loan losses is $29 billion, up from prior quarter of $27.3 billion.
  • The $29B allowance covers almost 4.3% of its total loan portfolio.
  • Nonperforming loan increased 30% from Q1 to $14.8 billion. In other words, 2.17% of its total loan is nonperforming.
  • However, the $29B allowance for loan losses covers 1.98 times of the nonperforming loan.
VALUATION
  • Market capitalization is $145 billion. Stock selling at roughly 3 times earnings before provision and tax.
  • If and when market returns to normal, the normalized earnings would spike because delinquency would decline. With an PPI earning power of $45 billion, and say 30% of it needs to be provided for loan losses, the earning would be $31.5 billion. At a tax rate of 35% (but likely to be increased due to the huge budget deficit and the appetite for healthcare reforms), the net income is $20.5B. Applying a multiple of 10, the business is worth $205 billion.
  • Even with the assumption of 30% of provision for loan losses, it translates to $13.5B, accounting for almost 2% of the loan portfolio ($681B). A relatively high number for even a normal economy.
BAC and Citi reported earnings yesterday but Citi does not seems to be out of the woods. I think BAC will be fine although BAC relies on an usually high percentage of their revenue on the non-interest businesses. Wells Fargo will report on Tuesday. I think they will stand out for their earning power, though loan losses are expected to be on the rise, no doubt. Let's wait.

Confessions of a TARP Wife

The article was reported written by Elizabeth Peek, wife of the CIT's chief executive, Jeffrey Peek, published in Portfolio Magazine. I just find it interesting and intriguing. It is reproduced as follows:

Forget the opera. Cancel dinner at Bouley. How life has changed since my CEO husband went to the government dole.

I am a TARP wife.

In keeping with the unwritten code of this new sisterhood, I have taken a vow of financial abstinence. I returned the presents my husbands gave me for Christmas (but didn't tell him, since he's already awash in gloom) and am using my credit balances at all the major department stores for important gifts and other necessities.

I haven't even looked at spring clothes; God forbid someone catches me out in something new. Keeping up with fashion seems somehow decadent in this new era, like getting Botox injections or catered dinners. Like so many others, I'm shopping in my closet. I've bought exactly two things this year - makeup and panty hose. If I buy a present for someone, I have the package sent to their home. I don't want to be spotted climbing into a taxi, laden with Bergdorf Goodman shopping bags.

As you can see, being a TARP wife means, in short, making decisions according to a complex algorithm: balancing the need to look like your world hasn't crumbled beneath you - let's not alarm the investors! - with the need to appear duly repentant for your subprime sins. It also means we're part of the community of more than 400 companies that have received government bailout funds, whose fall from grace has been swifter and harsher than any since Mao frog-marched intellectuals into China's countryside.

Hitting the perfect note isn't always easy. For instance, for the past 15 years or so, I have thrown my husband a birthday party. We traditionally celebrate with about 30 friends, mostly New York pals we've known for decades. We're not talking of an end-of-an-era Stephen Schwarzman-type $10 million blowout. Ours is a pretty sedate affair.

This year, of course, entertaining our crowd at our usual multi-star Michelin hotspots would simply not do. Extravagant is out; conservative is in. But not hosting a birthday dinner would have spurred rumors that we were broke, not a welcome thought either. Juggling these conflicting impulses, I decided on a slimmed-down party. Choosing Versailles to host World War I peach negotiations could not have been more complicated than my attempt to select the perfect spot for our annual dinner. Naturally, every restaurant I contacted was willing to meet my reduced budget; now that Wall Street firms are no longer entertaining clients or hosting events, New York eateries are struggling.

At the end of the day, it came down to a choice between an especially accommodating (and well-known) high-end restaurant and a less expensive, clubbier spot. We ultimately picked the cozier restaurant - even though it ended up costing us more, so eager was the more chic outfit to host the party. Why spend the extra bucks? Because our chosen place is distinctly low-profile and rarely mentioned in the press. We did not need a snarky story about a "Wall Street bigwig living it up while taxpayers wonder where their money went." Really, not even President Obama spends this much time looking after his image.

It wasn't long ago that America celebrated successful companies and the people who run them. My husband, CEO of one of the biggest TARP recipients, has received more than his share of accolades (in my opinion, well deserved). But because of a few tin-eared nitwits who failed to notice that their industry was under siege, the entire country now thinks that TARP bankers are greedy incompetents dedicated to ripping off taxpayers. Fancy wastebaskets, under-the-rug bonuses, lavish junkets - these are Exhibits A, B and C in the people's case against Wall Street. Even the Octomom gets better press.

Here is the reality: TARP managers are scared to death. The executives of these companies are desperately trying to hold their businesses together while complying with a slew of damaging bills flooding out to Congress. My husband has battled the shutdown of the credit markets and a deteriorating business environment for two endless years without respite. He's exhausted, terrified of losing the company, and beaten down by the constant criticism hurled at him.

I'm trying to buck him up and not complicate his life. The last thing he needs is unpleasant publicity, so I'm learning to fly so far below the radar that I have perpetually skinned knees. We've picked up new habits, like making donations anonymously and sneaking in late to black-tie galas after society photographer Patrick McMullan has packed up his camera and gone home. We now regularly turn down the invitations we receive from museums and arts organizations that will inevitably be followed by a request for funds. No point in getting their hopes up.

I get it that I may not win much sympathy. Why should I? I'm not pleading poverty. We still live in relative luxury, we can afford almost everything we need, and we aren't facing the prospect of losing our home or having to turn to our families to support us. But we are getting squeezed.

Like most Americans, we are worried about money. Our net worth is tied up in stock that is down 95 percent. Last year, before it became fashionable to do so, my husband refused a bonus. Because of the new restrictions, his pay this year will be a fraction of what it was. The combined swoon in our income has caused us to cut spending drastically, in hopes that we can hand on to some remnant of our former lifestyle.

In an effort to conserve cash, we are eating our less frequently, meaning that I've been turning our some pretty dreadful lasagna. Actually, staying home and watching Law & Order reruns has become our new guilty pleasure. It's far cry from opening night at the Metropolitan Opera, but it's not bad. I drive the family crazy by switching off the lights every time we leave a room. Needless to say, we fly commercial. Using the company plane is now out of bounds; we've heard there are reporters staking out the private airports.

I have become oddly superstitious. On some level, I feel I'm being punished for too many thoughtless years of assuming that the trappings success were earned and not given. I'm constantly knocking on wood or offering little good-citizen sacrifices, like manically recycling or chatting with telemarketers.

I'm struggling with how to communicate all this to our children. We're thankful that they're intent on making their own way in the world, but at the same time, they confidently rely on us for help. One daughter recently mused about going back to business school. I hope she didn't notice my instantly negative reaction, stemming completely from concern about the cost. I cannot bring myself to shake her foundation. The collapse of the world economy has crushed the confidence of young people just starting out, Meanwhile, retirement is like a rainbow, a beautiful mirage that we'll probably never reach. To some people, these may seem like luxury problems, but to us they are painful.

I've watched the skin under my husband's eyes take on a yellowish hue, and his hair turn gray to grayer, as he tries to lead his company through this mess. He's up every night for hours at a stretch, and for the first time, he has health issues. For a person whose life has been punctuated mainly by success - from perennial class president and high school sports star to Ivy League MBA - failure is the worst of all nightmares. He seems off balance, as though self-confidence were a physical ballast that he is slowly losing. It's heartbreaking how often he apologizes to me for losing so much of our money, for making so many mistakes.

I know people are angry - angry at those they view as responsible for the subprime crisis and the subsequent economic meltdown. I don't blame them. I'm angry too. But my fury extends to any number of culprits: to Alan Greenspan, who encouraged the loose-money policies that undermined the pricing of risk; to Barney Frank, who cudgeled Fannie Mae into supporting loans to unfit homebuyers; to the rating agencies that were ethically compromised; to the subprime-mortgage brokers who chased fees and ignored any accountability; to the investors who didn't do their homework and absurdly leveraged up their balance sheets. I'm an equal-opportunity blamer.

And yes, I blame those who were in charge of the big banks - including my husband - for not seeing the default tsunami coming. But almost no one did. Everyone knows this, yet financial CEOs have replaced the Mob as the most despised group in the country.

The good news is that Americans have short attention spans. Before long, some other group will come along to absorb all the frustration and anger.

Meanwhile, I'm off to the tailors to get some clothes altered. Shopping your closet is great unless you've put on a few pounds over the years. I've been holding out hope that fewer nights could shrink me to fit back into some of the past warhorses of my wardrobe. Unfortunately, our appetite for comfort food has risen in proportion to the Dow's decline; the selloff this past month has upped our mac-and-cheese intake and created a sinecure for my seamstress.

Thursday, July 16, 2009

High margin, low or reasonable capex businesses (part 3)

Business : Value Line provides investment advisory services to mutual funds, institution and individual clients, and publishes investment related periodicals. The company's publishing arm offers investment-advisory publications in print or electronic form that evaluates common stocks, options, mutual funds and convertibles. Value Line licenses certain Value Line trademarks and Value Line proprietary ranking system information to third party under written agreements for use in third party managed and marketed investment products. The company also offers investment managment and distribution services to the Value Line mutual funds, institutions and individual accounts.

Competition : The investment management and the investment information and publications businesses are very competitive. There are many competitors and a wide range of product offerings. Some competitors are far larger and have greater financial resources than Value Line. The internet has also increased the amount of competition in the form of free and paid investment research on the Internet. The absence of significant barriers to entry by new players in the mutual fund industry increases competitive pressure. Entry barriers in the publishing investment periodicals have been reduced by the minimal cost structure of the Internet. Competition is based on business reputation, investment performance, quality of service, marketing, distribution services offered, range of products offered and price charged.

Financials ($'000,000) :

20082007200620052004
Revenue82.6883.6485.1984.4885.27
Net profit25.5524.6123.4421.3220.35
Profit margin as a % of revenue30.90%29.42%27.52%25.23%23.87%
Total asset137.95128.96119.2198.87266.92
Return on asset18.52%19.08%19.66%21.56%7.62%
Net cash provided by operating activities20.3625.1818.9236.597.77
Capital expenditures-0.34-0.74-0.72-1.44-1.91
Free cash flow20.0124.4418.235.155.86
Diluted no. of shares9.989.989.989.989.98

The company's market capitalization is about $340 million.

Comments : Value Line is an old-line company whose services and products are found virtually in every brokerage office, library, hedge fund company, and in the homes and workplaces of individual investors throughout America. It is critically acclaimed by Warren Buffett: "I don't know any other system that's as good." The company has one of the largest independent research staffs of investment analysts and statisticians in the world who operate both objectively and unbiased. "The Value Line Investment Survey" is one of the most widely read investment periodicals in the world. Most serious equity researchers will at least consult the latest Value Line report on a stock before making their buy/sell decisions whether they are ultimately influenced by the report. The company is totally debt-free and has always been a good net cash generator that in 2004 they paid an $18.50 per share special distribution. However, the company has taken a hit to its investment management and licensing business, experiencing a drop of 19% and 35% respectively, in the first 9 months of its 2009 financial year. The licensing business fall was particular spectacular, plunging by almost 60%. The severity is felt across the asset management industry. According to the Investment Company Institute (ICI), the combined assets of the mutual funds in the U.S. (excluding money market funds) declined by $3.1 trillion or 36% for the nine months ended January 31, 2009. As a result, Value Line's asset under management also declined by 36% in the quarter to $2.33 billion. All told, its operating income before tax to decline by 34%, though was made up by an investment gain but such gain is a one-off. Thus, the company had cut its dividend from $1.6 per share to $1.2 per share, which still gives a yield of 3.4%. Even though with the drop in operating income, the operating income before tax is estimated to churn out about $22 million, after a tax rate of 35%, it would be about $14 million. Over the coming few quarters, the company will face a strong headwind. But given its pristine balance sheet, it has substantial liquidity, holding over $39 million in cash and $59 million in securities. But investors today will probably face a fairly flat capital return except for the dividend gain.

Business : J&J is organized into three business segments: Consumer, Pharmaceutical, and Medical Devices & Diagnostics. The company's operating model is highly decentralized with each operating companies - over 250 of them - makes decisions on their own.

Competition : The company faces intense competition in all product lines without regard to the number and size of the competing companies involved. Competition in R&D and the improvement of new and existing products and processes, is particularly significant. The development of new and improved products is key to J&J's success in all areas of its businesses. As a result, substantial investments in R&D is needed.

Financials ($'000,000) :

20082007200620052004
Revenue6374761095533245051447348
Net profit129491057611053100608180
Profit margin as a % of revenue20.31%17.31%20.73%19.92%17.28%
Total asset8491280954705565886454039
Return on asset15.25%13.06%15.67%17.09%15.14%
Net cash provided by operating activities1497215022142481179911089
Capital expenditures-3066-2042-2666-2632-2175
Free cash flow11906129801158291678914
Diluted no. of shares2835.62910.729613002.82992.7

The market capitalization is about $167 billion.

Comments : The advantage of its decentralization empowers its subsidiaries with the power to make decision, rather than creating a big bureaucracy. The role of the HQ is responsible for the allocation of resources for the group. It is very similar to how Berkshire Hathaway's business model. For the first time, the Medical Devices & Diagnostics segment has outsold the Pharmaceutical division, for the first half of 2009. Overall, sales for first half have declined by 7.3%, felt across all business divisions, in particular contributed largely by a 11.8% drop in pharmaceutical sales. The stronger dollar will weigh on the results. Indeed in the second quarter, the impact of currency contributed to a negative 6% decline. The some of the consumer division which have a discretionary component is likely to be hurt by the economic condition. All said, on a per share basis, earnings are likely to be relatively unchanged, due to better cost control and a lower stock count. J&J has proved to be able to grow prudently. With its great balance sheet - one of the few AAA-rated left - it leave a lot of room for them to do acquisitions. Already, JNJ had done a couple of tug-in acquisitions - Mentor as well as Omrix Biopharmaceuticals - this year. This good-quality stock is likely to return above-average returns as well as the ability to pay a decent dividend.

Wednesday, July 15, 2009

High margin, low or reasonable capex businesses (part 2)

Continuation from the previous post.

Business : Eli Lilly is a pharmaceutical company which discover, develop, manufacture and sell drug products. It also has an animal health business segment, whose operations are not significant to its financial earnings.

Competition : Eli Lilly competes with products manufactured by many other companies in highly competitive markets worldwide. Important competitive factors include product efficacy, safety, ease of use, price, demonstrated cost-effectiveness, marketing effectiveness, service and research and development of new products and processes. If new products or delivery systems with therapeutic or cost advantages are introduce by competitors, Lilly's products can be subject to progressive price reductions, decreased sales volume, or both. Most of its products must compete with other products already on the market or products that are later developed by competitors.

Financials (in $'000,000) :

20082007200620052004
Revenue2037818633.51569114645.313857.9
Net profit-2079.929532662.71979.61810.1
Profit margin as a % of revenue-10.21%15.85%16.97%13.52%13.06%
Total asset29212.626874.822042.424667.824954
Return on asset-7.12%10.99%12.08%8.03%7.25%
Net cash provided by operating activities7295.65154.53975.91913.62869.5
Capital expenditures-947.2-1082.4-1077.8-1298.1-1898.1
Free cash flow6348.44072.12898.1615.5971.4
Diluted no. of shares1094.51090.751087.491092.151088.94

The market capitalization is about $36 billion.

Comments : Eli Lilly, like most other big pharmas, is facing slow growth and challenges ahead to replace oncoming expiry to their blockbuster drugs. Its top three drugs make up almost 45% of its business. Furthermore, all are facing impending expiration to their patents either in 2011 (no.1 drug) or 2013 (no.2 and 3 drugs). To be successful in the highly competitive pharmaceutical industry, the company must commit substantial resources each year to research and development in order to develop new products to take the place of products facing expiration of patent and regulatory data exclusivity. Historically, Eli Lilly commits between 18 to 20% of sales to R&D. However, this does not guarantee success as there are many risks involve in development on drugs from research risk to regulatory risk to commercial risk. In recent years, the regulatory environment has gotten increasingly challenging for the industry. The industry worldwide faces a changing regulatory environment and heightened public scrutiny, which require greater assurances than ever to the safety and efficacy of drugs, as well as effectively providing reduced incentives for innovative pharmaceutical research. These requirements have resulted in the reduced number of new products that get approved. However, with the acquisition of ImClone, its drug Erbitux ought to boost Lilly's sales. The drug, a key component of Lilly's acquisition of ImClone, has been approved to treat head and neck cancer in the E.U. and should be approved in the U.S. next year. The company's once-a-week diabetes control drug, Byetta is an important long-term growth opportunity. Byetta currently has annual sales of about $700 million (or 2% of the oral diabetes market). It stimulates the release of insulin only when bloody sugar levels are high, but must be injected twice daily. A fruitful pipeline is necessary to sustain growth to 2012-2014 with the impending expiration of patent to its top-performing drugs, creating the need for a strong crop of treatments to replace them. While growth from Cialis and Alimta should offset some of the lost sales, other clinical molecules will need to be successfully promoted to grow the bottom line over the long term. Lilly, with its excellence financials, makes it an appealing long-term investment. While patent expirations are a concern, the company's has an almost-pristine balance sheet and puts it in a position to acquire small tug-in companies with close-to-market drugs who are financially strapped, should the 20 or so products under development in its pipeline fail to make an impact by 2012-2014.

Business : Moody's Corporation is a provider of credit ratings, research, and analysis covering debt instruments and securities in the global capital markets. It also provides quantitative credit assessment services, credit training services, and credit process software to banks and other financial institutions. Berkshire Hathaway is a major shareholder with 20.4% of the common stock.

Competition : Moody's credit rating division competes with other Credit Rating Agencies and with investment banks and brokerage firms that offer credit opinions and research. Many of Moody's customers also have in-house credit research capabilities. Its largest competitor in the global credit rating business is Standard & Poor's Rating Services, a division of The McGraw-Hill Companies. In addition to S&P, Moody's other competitors include, Fitch, a subsidiary of Fimalac S.A., Dominion Bond Rating Service Ltd. of Canada, A.M. Best Company Inc., Japan Credit Rating Agency, Rating and Investing Information Inc. of Japan, and Egan-Jones Rating Company. In 2008, two more firms were granted the Nationally Recognized Statistical Rating Organizations Status (NRSROs): LACE Financial Corp., and Realpoint LLC. SEC continues to expand the number of NRSROs. Moody's Analytics competes broadly in the financial information space with diversified competitors such as Thomson-Reuters, Bloomberg, RiskMetrics, Dun & Bradstreet, S&P, Fitch, and Markit Group, among others.

Financials ($'000,000) :

20082007200620052004
Revenue1755.422592037.11731.61438.3
Net profit457.6701.5753.9560.8425.1
Profit margin as a % of revenue26.07%31.05%37.01%32.39%29.56%
Total asset1773.41714.61497.71457.21389.3
Return on asset25.80%40.91%50.34%38.48%30.60%
Net cash provided by operating activities534.7984752.5707.9526.2
Capital expenditures-84.4-181.8-31.1-31.3-21.3
Free cash flow450.3802.2721.4676.6504.9
Diluted no. of shares245.3272.2291.9305.6304.7

The company's market capitalization is about $7.1 billion.

Comments : The credit rating business continues to be challenging with regulatory risk and new competitors. The big three may have permanently caused some damage to its reputation for impression of being a "rubber-stamper." In first quarter, Moody's continues to struggle, having recently reported its seventh consecutive quarterly earnings decline, with earnings sliding 15% year on year. The biggest declines were witnessed in the structured finance and financial institutions segments, where revenues fell 29% and 16% respectively. The decline in these two segments more than offset improved results from corporate finance segment which business was up by 15%. A few factors work against the company this quarter, including depressed credit market and the strengthening of the U.S. dollar. The latter will cut into full year earnings, as nearly 50% of Moody's ratings business comes from outside the U.S. Also, the company's expenses are expected to rise because of the need to increase its compliance operations in anticipation of some new regulations on credit rating agencies, beginning in 2010. The credit rating business faces increased scrutiny going forward, as the European Union approved new oversight for the $5 billion industry. This comes following public outcries that credit raters failed to give investors adequate warnings of risks in subprime mortgage securities. Under the proposed rules, agencies face would be liable for their opinions and could face E.U. sanctions if found guilty of professional misconduct. Although the new proposal would not force Moody's to alter its business model, the rules would increase compliance expenses. With all these, though, a top and bottom line rebound is probable as credit issuance picks up when the economy starts to recover - sometime in 2010. Moody's share has been on a roll since March. Investors with a long-term perspective should achieve decent returns at today's price.

Business : The Dun & Bradstreet Corp. is a worldwide provider of business information and related decision support services.

Financials ($'000,000) :

20082007200620052004
Revenue1726.31599.21474.913801370.2
Net profit310.6298.1240.7221.2211.8
Profit margin as a % of revenue17.99%18.64%16.32%16.03%15.46%
Total asset15861658.81360.11613.41635.5
Return on asset19.58%17.97%17.70%13.71%12.95%
Net cash provided by operating activities436.5393.9304.9261.5267.6
Capital expenditures-11.8-13.7-11.6-5.7-12.1
Free cash flow424.7380.2293.3255.8255.5
Diluted no. of shares55.559.865.169.473.1

The market capitalization of Dun & Bradstreet is about $4.4 billion.

Comments : The company has done well in cutting operating cost. Although revenue declined by 1.8% during the first quarter year on year, the operating income increased by 14%, more than offset by a 7% reduction in operating expenses. DNB faces a stagnant domestic U.S. business, but its international segment is still growing though the growth has slowed considerably during the first quarter year on year. Price has come under some pressure, in particular the Sales & Marketing Solutions division. The S&M division has come under fire as demand for its customer information and marketing services waned. With many clients operating in the beaten down retail sector, the lack of a proprietary product in this arena has forced DNB to compete on price. The core division, Risk Management Solutions, has by and large helped protect top line results because of the larger prevalence of subscription-type products, though business declined by 1%. The company is also an avid stock repurchaser, even during the first quarter.